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Euroeconomics provides analysis and forecasts for the economy of the euro zone (or euro area) for professional investors. The emphasis is on macroeconomic variables such as GDP, inflation, money supply), with daily updated statistics and real time commentary on data releases.

Euroeconomics' own forecasts for the major economic and financial variables are set against consensus projections to highlight the implications for financial markets.

Special attention is currently given to the sovereign debt crisis.
 

AREAS COVERED
 
 

Sovereign debt crisis

Full coverage provided of budgets, debt, bailout funds and fiscal policy

  • Daily statistics on bond yields and bond yield spreads of euro zone's problem countries (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, France, other)
  • Latest developments
  • Country notes on problem countries
  • Measures to combat crisis: from "No Bailouts" to Fiscal Compact
  • Evolution of budget deficits and government debt
  • Sustainability of debt

Chapter 7 "Constitution" provides full coverage of  euro zone institutions and their shortcomings

Surveys

Full coverage of euro zone surveys

  • Purchasing Managers' surveys of manufacturing sector

  • Purchasing Managers' surveys of services sector

  • Purchasing Managers' surveys of retail trade

  • Ifo survey of business climate in German economy  

  • National Bank of Belgium survey of manufacturing

  • European Commission survey of industry, services, construction

  • Consumer confidence and retail trade survey

Growth

Full coverage of all euro zone growth statistics

  • Gross Domestic Product

  • Industrial production

  • Construction output

  • Employment and unemployment

  • Retail sales

  • Passenger car registrations

  • External trade

  • Trade and current account balances

2012-13 growth forecasts: Consensus, Euroeconomics


Inflation

Full coverage of euro zone inflation statistics

  • Consumer prices

  • Purchasing Managers' survey of prices in manufacturing, services

  • Industrial producer prices

  • Commodity prices

  • Oil price

  • Labour costs

  • Unit labour costs

2012-13 inflation forecasts: Consensus, Euroeconomics

  


Finance

Full coverage of all euro zone financial indicators

  • ECB monetary stance

  • ECB balance sheet

  • Money supply

  • Bank lending

  • Key interest rates

Money market rate forecasts for 2012-13


Financial markets

Brief coverage of latest trends in markets

  • Euro zone stock markets
  • EUR/USD exchange rate
  • German Bunds

  Forecasts for 2012-13

New members euro adoption prospects: first new member unlikely before 2014

Doubts about the benefits of euro adoption have multiplied among candidate countries and polls indicate a major loss of confidence in the euro. Also, after joining contributions to bailout funds for countries in financial difficulties would be required and would be resented (particularly from a poorer country to a richer country, e.g. from Slovakia to Greece).

The greater monitoring of member countries budgets and economic policies now undertaken may discourage the more independent minded countries from joining in the foreseeable future. Euro adoption (obligatory but timeless) is being delayed by several years in a number of countries.

Many commentators, particularly in the UK and the US, believe that membership of the euro zone is more likely to shrink than expand.

Chapter 8 "Members" provides full coverage of  earliest possible year in which non member countries may adopt the euro.


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