LATEST: euro zone statistical releases & surveys

27 Jan: The money supply shrunk in Dec'11 for the third month running, reducing the y/y rise to 1.6%, down from a peak of 2.9% in year to Sep'11. Loans by banks to the private sector declined by EUR76bn in Dec'11 (chart below). Soon more at money

25 Jan: The German business climate improved again in Jan'12 as expectations of future business conditions rose. Current business conditions eased a fraction, but remain at a high level . As this is the third successive rise, the earlier downtrend may have ended. More at surveys

24 Jan: The flash Purchasing Managers' surveys for Jan'12 indicate that the recession in the euro zone became more shallow  (chart below). Activity in the services sector was marginally up on Dec'11. In manufacturing the decline eased. The composite output index rose to a 5-mnth high, though indicating only marginal growth. The euro zone economy remains deeply divided. Growth came from Germany and, to a lesser extent, from France. Elsewhere output is still shrinking. The forward looking indicators were weak. More at surveys

24 Jan: Industrial new orders declined by 1% in Nov'11 and were 3% lower than a year ago. Recent results point to some stabilisation at a low level. The business surveys for Dec'11-Jan'12 suggest that orders remained at a lowish level. More at growth

Week 4:  first surveys for Jan'12 mildly positive
23 Jan to 27 Jan

Week 4 started on a solid note with stock markets strengthening, safe haven bonds weakening. Optimism faded somewhat towards week end. But EUR remained above USD1.30, supported by renewed easing by Federal Reserve. The bond yield spread of Italy and Spain eased markedly. See debt

The week's business news is dominated by the first business surveys for Jan'12. Results so far are mildly positive. The recession in the euro zone appears to be flattening out. But the money supply and bank lending shrunk at the end of last year.

The IMF published on Tue its revised global economic forecasts. GDP growth in the euro zone was revised down to -0.5% for 2012 (from 1.1%) and to 0.8% for 2013 (from 1.5%).

FORTHCOMING euro zone statistics and surveys: week 5:

Mon  30 Jan:  European Commission business & consumer survey for Jan'12
                      previous
Tue  31 Jan:  Unemployment for Dec'11 previous
Wed  1  Feb:  Flash inflation rate for Jan'11 previous
                      Purchasing Managers' manufacturing survey for Jan'12 previous
                      Bank lending survey Jan'12 round previous
Thu   2  Feb:  Industrial producer prices for Dec'11 previous
Fri     3  Feb:  Retail trade for Dec'11 previous
                      Purchasing Managers' services survey for Jan'12 previous
 

The week that was:   modest expectations exceeded
16 Jan to 20 Jan

Week 2 ended with credit rating downgrades for France and eight other euro zone countries and unresolved negotiations to restructure Greek debt. This made for an unpromising start to week 3.

Yet stock markets shot up, EUR recovered lost ground and most yield spreads narrowed after successful bond auctions by France and Spain (see debt). Global growth prospects are seen to improve.
 

No major statistics were published last week. The annual inflation rate for Dec'11 was, at 2.7%, modestly below the flash result published earlier.

German government cut its 2012 GDP growth forecast to 0.7% (from 1.0%).

For consensus and Euroeconomics forecasts for 2012-13 see below.

Growth:  for full coverage of all euro zone growth statistics see
                 growth

According to latest growth statistics:

• industrial production again inched lower in Nov'11

• construction output remains deeply depressed

• unemployment rising

• retail sales plunged in Nov'11

• exports bounced back in Nov'11 from steep fall in Sep-Oct'11

See detailed growth statistics: 
 

Gross Domestic Product                Industrial Production Construction                                  Retail sales Unemployment                               External trade Forecasts

 for 2011-12 GDP growth forecasts see below.

See detailed inflation statistics:
 

Consumer prices            Producer prices         PMI survey of prices Commodity prices          Oil price                    Labour costs Forecasts

  for 2011-12 inflation forecasts see below.

Finance:  for full coverage of all euro zone financial indicators see
                   money

Latest financial statistics:

• Major boost to bank liquidity on strong uptake of ECB's 3-yr loans

• ECB balance sheet shot up after loans, in slight retreat since

• Money supply M3 shrank in Oct-Dec'11

• EURIBOR easing to 1.2%

• bank lending slumped in Dec'11, lending standards tightened further

See detailed financial statistics:
 

ECB monetary stance          Balance sheet      Key interest rates Money supply                      Bank lending        Bank lending rates

For money market rate forecasts for 2011-12 see below.

• euro zone stock markets up on rising US, China growth indicators
• EUR recovers some lost ground
• Demand for German bonds ease

See detail:

  For forecasts for 2011-12 see below.

• Fiscal compact intended to prevent future debt crises
• EMS start advanced to Jul'12, no PSI
• More austerity in Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain
• No structural reforms yet in Portugal

For full coverage of  euro zone institutions and their shortcomings see constitution