LATEST: euro zone statistical releases & surveys

3 Feb: The final Purchasing Managers' survey of the services sector indicates marginal growth overall in Jan'12. The index rose to 50.4, from 48.8 (chart below). Solid growth in Germany and moderate growth in France contrasts with negative growth persisting in Italy and Spain.

The inflow of new business declined again, albeit at a slower rate. The backlog of work thus shrunk and employment declined. But optimism about the outlook rose to a 5-month high. More at surveys

3 Feb: Retail sales declined once more in Dec'11, prolonging the downward trend (chart below). Soon more at growth

2 Feb: Producer prices eased in Dec'11 thanks to a temporary decline in energy prices. More at inflation

1 Feb: The final Purchasing Managers' surveys for Jan'12 indicates that the recession in the euro zone's manufacturing sector eased. The index rose to a 5-mnth high of 48.8 (Dec'11: 46.9), still in contraction territory.  Manufacturing output rose, if marginally, while new orders declined at a slower rate.

Activity rose in Germany and Austria while the decline in activity in Italy and Spain moderated. More at surveys

1 Feb: The annual inflation in the euro zone in Jan'12 was unchanged at 2.7% according to the flash estimate. See also inflation

31 Jan: The unemployment rate in the euro zone rose to 10.4% in Dec'11 (from 10.0% in Dec'10). More at growth

Week 6:  ECB Governing Council meeting may dominate
6 Feb to 10 Feb

New week started on cautious note as Greek political parties continue to refuse to accept additional austerity measures demanded by EU/ECB/IMF. Stock markets and EUR in retreat. But most bond spreads of problem countries continue to narrow. See debt

Thursday brings the ECB's rate setting meeting. Though a cut in the main discount rate is a possibility, more likely is no significant changes in policy after the major measurers announced at Dec'11's meeting. see money

The only statistics due this week are from Germany's industrial sector for Dec'11. They will provide some insight into how the euro zone's industrial sector performed in that month. The euro zone's Dec'11 industrial production result is due next week.
 

FORTHCOMING euro zone statistics and surveys:

week 6
Mon  6  Feb:  German factory orders for Dec'11
Tue   7  Feb:  German industrial production for Dec'11
Wed  8  Feb:  German external trade for Dec'11
Thu   9  Feb:   ECB Governing Council previous

week 7
Tue  14  Feb:  Industrial production for Dec'11 previous
Wed 15  Feb:  GDP Q4'11 flash estimate previous
                       External trade for Dec'11 previous
Fri    17  Feb:  Construction output for Dec'11 previous
                       Balance of payments for Dec'11 previous
                     

The week that was:  EU summit accepts fiscal compact
30 Jan to 3 Feb

Week 5 started with another European Union summit. Final agreement was reached on a "fiscal compact" which is to enforce stricter fiscal discipline.

The final business surveys for Jan'11 published last week have been above expectations, suggesting that Q1'12 started on a less downbeat note than Q4'11 ended. Though indications remain that Q1'12 may see negative growth, it may be less negative that Q4'11, benefitting from the ECB's liquidity boosting measures and a more supportive external environment. See surveys.

Last week brought a steep narrowing in bond yield spreads, suggesting a view in financial markets that the debt crisis is now under better control. See debt.

Last week also brought strengthening stock markets as global growth indicators turned up and a weakening of safe haven bonds. The EUR remained above the USD1.30 mark.

Other euro zone indicators showed that the inflation rate stabilised at 2.7% in Jan'12 and that there was a more modest rise in unemployment in Dec'11, the unemployment rate remaining at 10.4%.

For consensus and Euroeconomics forecasts for 2012-13 see below.

Growth:  for full coverage of all euro zone growth statistics see
                 growth

According to latest growth statistics:

• industrial production again inched lower in Nov'11

• construction output remains deeply depressed

• unemployment rising

• retail sales weak

• exports bounced back in Nov'11 from steep fall in Sep-Oct'11

See detailed growth statistics: 
 

Gross Domestic Product                Industrial Production Construction                                  Retail sales Unemployment                               External trade Forecasts

 for 2011-12 GDP growth forecasts see below.

See detailed inflation statistics:
 

Consumer prices            Producer prices         PMI survey of prices Commodity prices          Oil price                    Labour costs Forecasts

  for 2011-12 inflation forecasts see below.

Finance:  for full coverage of all euro zone financial indicators see
                   money

Latest financial statistics:

• Major boost to bank liquidity on strong uptake of ECB's 3-yr loans

• ECB balance sheet shot up after loans, in slight retreat since

• Money supply M3 shrank in each month in Q4'11

• Steady decline in EURIBOR towards 1%

• bank lending slumped in Dec'11, lending standards tightened further

See detailed financial statistics:
 

ECB monetary stance          Balance sheet      Key interest rates Money supply                      Bank lending        Bank lending rates

For money market rate forecasts for 2011-12 see below.

• euro zone stock markets on uptrend as global growth indicators turn up
• EUR recovers some lost ground
• Demand for German bonds weakens as stock markets rise

See detail:

  For forecasts for 2011-12 see below.

• Fiscal compact, intended to prevent future debt crises, approved
• EMS start advanced to Jul'12, no PSI
• More austerity in Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain
• Structural reforms promised

For full coverage of  euro zone institutions and their shortcomings see constitution